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Blue Jays 2016/17 offseason roster thread
(2016-12-23, 09:23 PM)shadylane Wrote: Revere's numbers absolutely cratered last season. He was somehow worth -1.2 WAR in only 375 plate appearances. I wouldn't have wanted him back at any salary.

I agree.
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If Vladdy Jr could be the big piece going to the Pirates and they wouldn't need to part with Greene, Harris, Reid-Foley, Alford or Urena I'd pull the trigger on a Cutch trade. I doubt Vladdy + a few B/C prospects comes close to getting it done though.
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(2016-12-24, 02:10 PM)shadylane Wrote: If Vladdy Jr could be the big piece going to the Pirates and they wouldn't need to part with Greene, Harris, Reid-Foley, Alford or Urena I'd pull the trigger on a Cutch trade. I doubt Vladdy + a few B/C prospects comes close to getting it done though.

He seems like the closest thing they have to a potential star in the system though.

Can't imagine Atkins would want to make that move.

It's really too bad AA was so liberal in dumping prospects.  Yes, they've had a great run...but now they have very little flexibility.

Moving more prospects could enable them to extend their competitive window (and perhaps field a team capable of winning it all), but I could see them ending up like the Angels not long after - terrible, with virtually nothing on the farm.
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I don't think the Jays farm system is near as bad as you make it out to be. IIRC someone in here not long ago posted something stating they were arguably back to Top 10 status.
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That might’ve been me. John Manuel said on a recent podcast that the Jays system could be considered a top 10 one based on the depth and variety of prospects. There’s no Yoan Moncada at the top of it but there’s athleticism and upside throughout the lower levels.

I think Vlad Jr. could be moved because he might not stick at 3B. As a corner outfield/1B his bat will need to carry him and at 17 years old that’s far from a sure thing. It might be a prudent time to cash in on his value while his name recognition, tougher playing position and lack of exposure to good pitching carry his prospect status. If another team likes him as the headliner to a trade, they’ll probably want to at least listen.

Urena is the guy I'd want to keep.
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Interesting comments by Steve Phillips today. Sounds like the Jays haven't made any offer to Bautista and don't plan to.


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Been thinking more about the Bautista situation and where he might end up. If the NL is out like Phillips says (and I tend to agree) these might be his most likely destinations as a DH:

Tampa Bay Rays: Corey Dickerson probably plays full-time in LF which leaves their DH vacant. Rays also would have a protected top 10 pick so would be giving up a 2nd rounder to sign Bautista. I think Tampa can be somewhat competitive in 2017 and Bautista's bat could help.

Oakland A's: Also a vacant DH if Alonso is at 1B and Vogt is full-time catcher. Also a protected 1st round pick. They made a surprising run at Encarnacion and Bautista wouldn't be a bad fall back option. They've proven to not really give a damn about clubhouse chemistry so Jose's negatives likely wouldn't be much of an issue.

Unlikely, but still somewhat feasible, landing spots:

Boston Red Sox: With Ramirez finding his game again he might have value in a trade which would open up a spot for Bautista to DH.

Seattle Mariners: RF Seth Smith is awful against left handed pitching and LF Ben Gamel is a question mark. Valencia can play multiple positions, including corner OF, and maybe Bautista could rotate LF/RF/1B with him. Not very likely though.

Kansas City Royals: Other than Cuthbert and Soler I don't think they have anyone to DH. Soler will probably play mostly RF and Bautista could be a trade chip at the deadline if the Royals aren't competitive. Pretty sure KC values their 14th overall draft pick though so the only situation I could see Bautista signing there would be after the pick compensation deadline has passed in June.

Twins: Protected 1st overall pick. Byung-ho Park was awful last year and if Sano's defense is passable at 3B they might have an opening. Again though, a signing would likely just be so they could flip him for something at the deadline. Jose would have to be pretty desperate to sign with the Twins too I imagine.

So if no NL teams are interested in him (and IMO they shouldn't be) there are literally only two teams that make sense as destinations for Bautista. Agree? Disagree?
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Also, follow up question: How in the hell did his agent not foresee this kind of market for his client's services?
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(2016-12-26, 04:16 PM)shadylane Wrote: Interesting comments by Steve Phillips today. Sounds like the Jays haven't made any offer to Bautista and don't plan to.



Great...they will have a great clubhouse and finish 4th. They must be so proud lol

The fact is they have won with Bautista and as long as he produces he will have his teammates respect.

Steve Phillips is a terrible insider anyway. Guy drove the Mets right into the ground.
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(2016-12-25, 09:57 AM)shadylane Wrote: That might’ve been me. John Manuel said on a recent podcast that the Jays system could be considered a top 10 one based on the depth and variety of prospects. There’s no Yoan Moncada at the top of it but there’s athleticism and upside throughout the lower levels.

I think Vlad Jr. could be moved because he might not stick at 3B. As a corner outfield/1B his bat will need to carry him and at 17 years old that’s far from a sure thing. It might be a prudent time to cash in on his value while his name recognition, tougher playing position and lack of exposure to good pitching carry his prospect status. If another team likes him as the headliner to a trade, they’ll probably want to at least listen.

Urena is the guy I'd want to keep.

True.  I don't think the Jays farm system is bad overall, but they have virtually none of the near-MLB ready prospects teams would want in a major trade.

In that area, the farm is thin.

If the Jays do get rid of their top prospects in the lower levels, they're really pushing back their timeline for contention after this core is gone.  With teams like Boston and Cleveland arguably not even peaking yet, I'm not sure Atkins and Shapiro are willing to do that.

How much can they really get out of this core?  Maybe 1-2 years tops?  If they get rid of some young talent for players like Blackmon and/or McCutcheon, what happens then?

I just feel like the current management group isn't going to be willing to turn this team into the Angels to extend the competitive window by a year or two.
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If Bautista signs with anyone who doesn't have a protected first rounder or hasn't already lost their first rounder already I'll be pretty surprised. He just isn't worth that sacrifice. A second rounder? Maybe, but not a first.
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(2016-12-26, 06:30 PM)Unreal Wrote:
(2016-12-25, 09:57 AM)shadylane Wrote: That might’ve been me. John Manuel said on a recent podcast that the Jays system could be considered a top 10 one based on the depth and variety of prospects. There’s no Yoan Moncada at the top of it but there’s athleticism and upside throughout the lower levels.

I think Vlad Jr. could be moved because he might not stick at 3B. As a corner outfield/1B his bat will need to carry him and at 17 years old that’s far from a sure thing. It might be a prudent time to cash in on his value while his name recognition, tougher playing position and lack of exposure to good pitching carry his prospect status. If another team likes him as the headliner to a trade, they’ll probably want to at least listen.

Urena is the guy I'd want to keep.

True.  I don't think the Jays farm system is bad overall, but they have virtually none of the near-MLB ready prospects teams would want in a major trade.

In that area, the farm is thin.

If the Jays do get rid of their top prospects in the lower levels, they're really pushing back their timeline for contention after this core is gone.  With teams like Boston and Cleveland arguably not even peaking yet, I'm not sure Atkins and Shapiro are willing to do that.

How much can they really get out of this core?  Maybe 1-2 years tops?  If they get rid of some young talent for players like Blackmon and/or McCutcheon, what happens then?

I just feel like the current management group isn't going to be willing to turn this team into the Angels to extend the competitive window by a year or two.

Yeah it's a challenging position to be in. But one that a lot of teams wish they were in I'm sure. Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Osuna and an excellent rotation is a pretty good starting point if you're going after a wild card spot.

The thing that gives me pause is seeing how much stronger the Indians and Red Sox are right now. But on the flip side, the Jays could go into 2017 without anymore significant upgrades and have a shot at being the 3rd best team in the AL. As a league, it's not very strong after the top 2. It might be wise to take advantage and hope for some luck in the playoffs.

But yeah, landing Cutch would cost a lot and wiping out a good chunk of the top 10 prospects would probably delay any attempt to assemble a good, young core even longer than it already appears.
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That's why I think bringing Bautista back may be a smart move. I realize he doesn't have the greatest attitude, but if they want to extend their competitive window he seems to be a good bet to bounce back for a season or two, without gutting the farm.

Let's face it, on a 1 or 2 year deal, he's going to be extremely motivated to try and raise his value.
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There's probably a lot of truth to the negative energy aspect but I have to wonder if there's not something else influencing the Jays. I have no idea how Shapiro values chemistry but I'm pretty sure it's not so large that it would wipe out any value Bautista brings with his bat.

You're definitely right - he will be super motivated to play well on a 1-year deal. And the other free agent OF options out there are not enticing. I just wonder if there's something in his medical records that is making the Jays reluctant to offer him a contract.

If his shoulder is so bad that he can't make good throws anymore, when does that affect his swing? Or has it already? Maybe his 2016 dip in production isn't an anomaly, maybe it's a sign of things to come.
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Bautista had a WAR of 1.0 in 2016. If thats what you can expect from him going forward, you're not losing much by letting him walk, and gaining a lot less attitude.
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(2016-12-27, 12:42 PM)shadylane Wrote: There's probably a lot of truth to the negative energy aspect but I have to wonder if there's not something else influencing the Jays. I have no idea how Shapiro values chemistry but I'm pretty sure it's not so large that it would wipe out any value Bautista brings with his bat.

You're definitely right - he will be super motivated to play well on a 1-year deal. And the other free agent OF options out there are not enticing. I just wonder if there's something in his medical records that is making the Jays reluctant to offer him a contract.

If his shoulder is so bad that he can't make good throws anymore, when does that affect his swing? Or has it already? Maybe his 2016 dip in production isn't an anomaly, maybe it's a sign of things to come.

Good point.

Perhaps the attitude is enough though.  If you look at the type of players they acquired and developed in Cleveland, a Bautista type attitude is exactly what they wanted to stay away from.

That said, the players on this team have been around him for years now...I can't see a 1 or 2 year deal causing much damage in that respect (unless clubhouse chemistry was far worse than we know).

His physical condition may very well be the major issue here.
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(2016-12-27, 12:42 PM)shadylane Wrote: If his shoulder is so bad that he can't make good throws anymore, when does that affect his swing? Or has it already? Maybe his 2016 dip in production isn't an anomaly, maybe it's a sign of things to come.

More importantly if his shoulder is so bad that it relegates him to DH the majority of the time that would put it a bigger dent in his value as well. Last year his positional adjustment was -6.9 and he was worth -12.5 runs on defence overall.  As a fulltime DH it would be -17.5.

Even if he still plays some OF it likely wouldn't be great. Let say he plays 75% of his games at DH and the rest in a corner OF spot with the same defence as last year.  His positional adjustment would be around -13 runs and his performance would be another -4 runs. That is -17 RAA on defence which would nearly be -2 wins on its own.

If Bautista was a 1.4 win player with -12.5 RAA on defence he is nearly replacement level as a DH. He either needs to see a huge bounce back with his bat or suddenly become a much better fielder to provide a team with enough value to justify his likely large salary and potential attitude problems.
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It's funny how even just a few years ago the defensive value of a player was basically an afterthought in the mainstream media. Or, at best, it was accepted, but not significant enough to depress the value of an above average hitter.

As it stands, the Blue Jays presumably value the potential compensation pick more than Jose Bautista in their lineup.
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Or maybe not.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/bl...tista.html
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I think he'll be back...Hopefully one year...

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