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Good article by Jonathen Willis on X Draft
#1
Expansion Opportunities
Jonathan Willis
January 02 2017 09:00AM
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When the Vegas Golden Knights make their selection from the Edmonton Oilers at this summer’s expansion draft, my guess is that it will be one of two players: Benoit Pouliot or Mark Fayne.
Superficially, neither is an ideal pick for Vegas, but Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli has the ability to make such a choice worthwhile for the Knights, and presumably he also has the motivation.

Benoit Pouliot
One of the things working in favour of a Pouliot selection is the fact that there just isn’t going to be that much offensive talent available this summer. For most teams, a scheme which protects seven forwards makes sense, which is going to leave a lot of third-liners exposed.
Pouliot is obviously not a favourite of the current administration—recall that Chiarelli let him walk after a 16-goal season in Boston to make room for Jordan Caron—but he has more scoring ability than he’s shown this season. Entering this season he’d averaged 24 goals/82 games played with the Oilers and he only just turned 30 at the start of the year. This season hasn’t worked out for him, but as a reclamation project he makes a lot of sense for a Vegas team that is going to be woefully short of skilled forwards.
Having said that, Pouliot is also in the middle of an awful campaign and has two years left at a $4.0 million cap hit after this one. In some ways his situation is comparable to that of Teddy Purcell when Purcell wound up in Edmonton, and given his contract one must assume that his trade value is negative.
For the Oilers, offering an incentive to Vegas to make this selection makes sense. In some ways it works in the favour of the Golden Knights, who could collect some kind of future while at the same time adding a useful NHL forward who can play in all situations. For Edmonton, the obvious upside is clearing away the salary of a player the coach doesn’t seem to trust.
Mark Fayne
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Fayne’s situation is similar to Pouliot’s in some ways. His value as a player is obviously lower at this point, but at the same time he has just one year left on his current contract rather than two.
For Vegas, the appeal is in landing a right-shot defenceman who can be thrown to the wolves for a while to buy time for younger players. There are going to be some decent blueliners available in expansion, but predominantly those players are left-shot options.
Working against this is Fayne’s contract and status. It’s more difficult to make a case for him as a reclamation project than it is for Pouliot. Additionally, while buying out Pouliot’s contract would be a major headache, the last year of Fayne’s deal isn’t really that costly. By my math, the cap hit on a buyout would be a modest $1.3 million in 2017-18 and then $1.2 million in 2018-19.
However, with Connor McDavid’s new contract kicking in for the 2018-19 season, Edmonton might well prefer to avoid the buyout entirely and just burn Fayne’s $3.625 million cap hit in 2017-18 and be done with it.
On the whole, this is a less likely scenario than a Pouliot selection, but it might work if the Oilers can move Pouliot in another deal (likely retaining salary in the process). In that event, Edmonton would be eager to remove Fayne’s cap hit and Vegas would be an obvious destination.
What it Would Take
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As it stands, Brandon Davidson seems like the most likely selection for the Golden Knights. Edmonton won’t have trouble protecting its forwards, and Davidson fits the sweet spot of cheap, young, somewhat experienced and potentially capable of playing top-four minutes at some point in the future.
For the Oilers, convincing Vegas to take a Pouliot or Fayne would require offering enough assets to compensate the Golden Knights for a) missing out on Davidson and b) taking on the remaining dollars of a Pouliot/Fayne.
To work with, the Oilers have a full set of 2018 and 2019 picks. The club doesn’t own a second-rounder in 2017, but should have extra third- and fifth-round picks that year. In the Knights’ shoes, prospects make sense, too and Edmonton has some options there.

Such a deal would make sense for both teams. The Oilers would be able to clear money and keep Davidson in the system. Vegas would be able to add an established player, but more importantly stock up on picks and prospects. It’s likely to be a few years before the Golden Knights are really competitive, and so this expansion draft is likely to be almost as much about extorting futures from teams as it will be grabbing NHL-ready talent. 


I would love to see them take Fayne LOL.  Pouliot as well. Like I said eat some salary and give them a 6th rounder.
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#2
Doesn't Vegas get an extra 2nd rounder in the entry draft too?

Where will they pick in round 1?  Is it already predetermined?
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#3
Vegas is treated as a lottery team and the lowest they can pick is 6th.
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#4
(2017-01-02, 03:47 PM)CTS Wrote: Doesn't Vegas get an extra 2nd rounder in the entry draft too?

Where will they pick in round 1?  Is it already predetermined?

The Las Vegas franchise will be given the same odds in the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery as the team finishing with the third-fewest points during the 2016-17 regular season.


Their first round selection in the 2017 NHL Draft will be determined in accordance with the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery and, as a result, the Las Vegas franchise will be guaranteed no lower than the sixth overall selection.

The Las Vegas franchise then will select third in each subsequent round of the 2017 NHL Draft (subject to trades and other potential player transactions).
Liberty And Justice For Most.
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#5
This season is starting to make me reconsider my protected list.

A bold question - would it be worthwhile leaving Eberle unprotected as well? He's a monster contract hit - if Vegas were to snatch him, that would leave a lot of room for Edmonton.

A 4/4 would be:

RNH
Lucic (NMC)
Draisatl
Maroon

Larsson
Klefbom
Russel
Sekera (NMC)

It does risk Eberle being taken - but could he be replaced more cost effectively this summer?
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#6
(2017-01-02, 03:56 PM)HockeyHippy Wrote: This season is starting to make me reconsider my protected list.

A bold question - would it be worthwhile leaving Eberle unprotected as well? He's a monster contract hit - if Vegas were to snatch him, that would leave a lot of room for Edmonton.

A 4/4 would be:

RNH
Lucic (NMC)
Draisatl
Maroon

Larsson
Klefbom
Russel
Sekera (NMC)

It does risk Eberle being taken - but could he be replaced more cost effectively this summer?

Eberle is better than has been playing lately IMO, and I think that he is too valuable to lose for nothing. I would protect him in place of Russell as I think that Vegas has more attractive options from our roster. Personally, I think that if they take a forward it will be Pouliot and if they take on of our D-men to will be Davidson.
Liberty And Justice For Most.
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#7
(2017-01-02, 03:56 PM)HockeyHippy Wrote: This season is starting to make me reconsider my protected list.

A bold question - would it be worthwhile leaving Eberle unprotected as well? He's a monster contract hit - if Vegas were to snatch him, that would leave a lot of room for Edmonton.

A 4/4 would be:

RNH
Lucic (NMC)
Draisatl
Maroon

Larsson
Klefbom
Russel
Sekera (NMC)

It does risk Eberle being taken - but could he be replaced more cost effectively this summer?

This is a question I asked a while back. LOL.  Now with 2 years left at 6 mill after this and if he does not get his game ( Scoring going) it could be a possibility.

I do not think they will as I really do think they will do a move like in this article thus protecting all the guys they want.

Add a draft pick and keep some cash seems like a good thing I guess.

For me, and this is just me, I would go hard after TJ Oshie for next year. Just turned 30 so you get a good 5 years out if him or 4 for sure as he is a health guy.  The guy can skate fast, Hit , plays so hard in front of the net and had his best goal scoring year ever last. He is easily still a 50 point guy that is good all over the ice and with a McD would be great RW to boot. Had an injury this year but still on target for over 20 goals easily as he has 11 in 29 and if not hurt may have got 30.  Only thing is he might be too expensive and unless we were to move an Eberle could not afford him.
I would take Oshie any day over Eberle on my #1 RW. Brings way more to the table.
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#8
i wouldn't be against letting Ebs go unprotected if he were to not score more that 20 goals this year simply because at $6 mil/per, he'd be too expensive to retain for such little goal scoring and with Leon due a contract this summer, and McJesus and Nurse the following summer, they could likely replace Ebs lack of scoring with a bigger winger either through trade or the UFA market at much less.
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#9
If Eberle does not score 20 goals this year, given his career in the NHL has provided seasons of:


34 G
16G (in 48 games)
28G
24G
25G (in 69 games)

wouldn't you think that that season would be an abberation and expect him to bounce back to career norms?
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#10
^i am one of the many fans who don't believe we'll ever win anything with this guy and wouldn't be upset if he were gone after this year, but i have no idea off hand who'd replace him. i just presented a scenario that the Oilers could consider if they chose to....simply getting out from under a large contract for a player who scored points but does little else, even if it mean't getting nothing for him. i don't really believe the Oilers will actually go this route though.
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#11
As disappointing as RNH and Ebs have been, I don't see it as the "new them." All good players have bad seasons. Hell, three years ago, Crosby was done. There was a time when many though OV would ever score 40 again.

RNH and Ebs aren't the level those two players are, however, they are still good players.
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#12
(2017-01-02, 10:44 PM)Pouzar Wrote: If Eberle does not score 20 goals this year, given his career in the NHL has provided seasons of:


34 G
16G (in 48 games)
28G
24G
25G (in 69 games)

wouldn't you think that that season would be an abberation and expect him to bounce back to career norms?

I'm not sure I agree with the argument I'm about to make, but it's fun to sound out. 

Going forward, the Oilers are going to have some very expensive contracts at forward. Lucic, Drai, McDavid and RNH are going to be a costly bunch. Even with some bargains on D - Larsson and Klef - the Oilers are going to have an expensive core. 

So the Oilers are going to need to surround that core with bargains - players who can outperform their contracts. Rookies, of course, but also journeymen like Maroon who can put points while keeping cheap to the cap. 

Even if Eberle returns to form, his isn't a bargain contract. 25-30 goals for 6 million is fair, but it's no bargain. He will never be a bargain. So to an extent, it almost makes sense to expose him. 

That being said, I don't think it will happen. While it's by no means certain he'd be taken, it's still a massive risk. Losing a guy like him without getting anything in return would be an impossible move for a GM to make.
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#13
I still think Eberle has some value, in fact he's been playing better lately.

I just wonder if this is where he wants to be.
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#14
I'm looking forward to Eberle being a more consistent part of the even strength offence in the 2nd half.

He has a history in this league that, to me, shows his offence will start to come - hopefully it starts tonight.
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#15
(2017-01-02, 10:44 PM)Pouzar Wrote: If Eberle does not score 20 goals this year, given his career in the NHL has provided seasons of:


34 G
16G (in 48 games)
28G
24G
25G (in 69 games)

wouldn't you think that that season would be an abberation and expect him to bounce back to career norms?

No not necessarily.  Eberle is not a workout guy ( Big Time) in the off season. This year he supposedly worked out harder and had a shooting coach. The guy is never going to be a big time defensive player and with the game getting faster and faster and D men bigger and faster, I think it will be tough for him where he likes to play ( In front and in close)

It could go either way for him I guess.  Lets hope he starts scoring sooner than later!!!!!
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#16
(2017-01-03, 12:00 AM)HockeyHippy Wrote:
(2017-01-02, 10:44 PM)Pouzar Wrote: If Eberle does not score 20 goals this year, given his career in the NHL has provided seasons of:


34 G
16G (in 48 games)
28G
24G
25G (in 69 games)

wouldn't you think that that season would be an abberation and expect him to bounce back to career norms?

I'm not sure I agree with the argument I'm about to make, but it's fun to sound out. 

Going forward, the Oilers are going to have some very expensive contracts at forward. Lucic, Drai, McDavid and RNH are going to be a costly bunch. Even with some bargains on D - Larsson and Klef - the Oilers are going to have an expensive core. 

So the Oilers are going to need to surround that core with bargains - players who can outperform their contracts. Rookies, of course, but also journeymen like Maroon who can put points while keeping cheap to the cap. 

Even if Eberle returns to form, his isn't a bargain contract. 25-30 goals for 6 million is fair, but it's no bargain. He will never be a bargain. So to an extent, it almost makes sense to expose him. 

That being said, I don't think it will happen. While it's by no means certain he'd be taken, it's still a massive risk. Losing a guy like him without getting anything in return would be an impossible move for a GM to make.

Within the next 2 years I do think both Eberle and RNH will be gone.  I think Caggiulla and or a Khaira will eventually be that 3rd line C man or they grab one and a cheaper one in the UFA.
Also I do not see Eberle as the long term RWer for McD.  I also think they grab a UFA or develop one somehow or trade for one.
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#17
Eberle has been producing at a good clip, just not scoring. Before Christmas, he had 8 points in 10 games.

He'll pick it up.
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#18
What about offering Ebs for draft pick immunity and other pieces? High pick? Defenceman we covet? I don't think Ebs is as bad as people are saying, but getting out of that contract would be nice.
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#19
(2017-01-04, 09:52 AM)ZappaScores Wrote: What about offering Ebs for draft pick immunity and other pieces? High pick? Defenceman we covet? I don't think Ebs is as bad as people are saying, but getting out of that contract would be nice.

Sure if they can add what they need and some high end or high end pick that we can turnaround into a player in another trade.

I think teams look at Eb's and if he is not scoring want nothing to do in trading for him with that lack of defensive game. And that 6 mill contract. Right now he is not a great asset in a trade for us, but Maybe they can suck someone in?
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#20
(2017-01-03, 11:21 AM)TheOilerFan83 Wrote: Eberle has been producing at a good clip, just not scoring. Before Christmas, he had 8 points in 10 games.

He'll pick it up.

LOL   actually in his  10 games prior to Xmas he had 2 points. an assist on a PP and a goal on a PP.
No 5 on 5 points at all.
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