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Blue Jays Offseason Discussion
Yeah I have to agree. Garcia is the better signing. Bettter pitcher and better contract.

I really like what the jays have done this off-season. They have signed alot of high floor guys that could potentially put something together if things break right while at the same time not tying themselves to long term guys so that if things go south they can pivot to a youth movement.
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he wasn't the better pitcher last year...Cashner had 3 times as much value.
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I assume you are looking at bWAR?

On my phone right now but in short, I would take Cashners bWAR with a whole box of salt. Yeah he prevented runs last year but His actually run prevention skills last year were atrocious. Him running a mid 3 ERA with a sub 5 K/9 and nearly 10% BB% is a miracle akin to Jesus being ressurected.

(bWAR is based off of runs against per 9.)
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(2018-02-17, 04:54 PM)Andrew Wrote: I assume you are looking at bWAR?

On my phone right now but in short, I would take Cashners bWAR with a whole box of salt. Yeah he prevented runs last year but His actually run prevention skills last year were atrocious. Him running a mid 3 ERA with a sub 5 K/9 and nearly 10% BB% is a miracle akin to Jesus being ressurected.

(bWAR is based off of runs against per 9.)

bWAR for pitchers is definitely flawed. I go fWAR for pitchers. Seems much more accurate when it comes to true value.
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yes...it was a quick look at bWAR...and it was like 4.6, to 1.6..which is a pretty big difference, regardless what the criteria for the stat is.
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(2018-02-17, 05:05 PM)dmc23 Wrote:
(2018-02-17, 04:54 PM)Andrew Wrote: I assume you are looking at bWAR?

On my phone right now but in short, I would take Cashners bWAR with a whole box of salt. Yeah he prevented runs last year but His actually run prevention skills last year were atrocious. Him running a mid 3 ERA with a sub 5 K/9 and nearly 10% BB% is a miracle akin to Jesus being ressurected.

(bWAR is based off of runs against per 9.)

bWAR for pitchers is definitely flawed. I go fWAR for pitchers. Seems much more accurate when it comes to true value.

I default to fWAR as well but Depends what you want to know I guess. If you want to know how valuable a pitcher actually was then bWAR will tell you. Some people argue that "true value" is the value of what actually happened not what should have happened. 

Bill James made a stink about this in terms of WAR and MVP arguing context is more important earlier this year. I can see the reasoning but I prefer a more noise free model.
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In Cashner's 3 seasons prior to 2017 he was worth -1.6 bWAR so the O's have to believe there were some underlying changes made by him in 2017 that they think he can sustain.

Turns out, his exit velo of 89.3 mph on fly balls was 39th lowest of 311 starting pitchers last season. He also started throwing his sinker more, and throwing it higher in the zone. Maybe his extreme 36.5% infield fly rate on the 2-seamer (and thus his high rate of soft contact) is a result of that. Problem here is that an infield fly rate that high doesn't look at all sustainable - and if some of those balls in play get straightened out he could get burned in that home ballpark.

The margin for error with Cashner appears to be razor thin which is why I don't understand giving him a 2nd guaranteed year. I think the Jays got it right with the Garcia contract.
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Jays reportedly have come to an agreement with former Cardinals closer Seung-Hwan Oh.
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One year deal, guaranteed 2 million, includes vesting option for 2019. As per Ben Nicholson-Smith.


Pending a physical, Oh had an agreement with Texas 3 weeks ago on a 2.75 million deal, but they didn't like his physical apparently.
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Oh got hammered by left handed hitters last year, in large part to his changeup abandoning him. It had less vertical drop, and caught more of the zone. If he can rediscover the offspeed stuff, he could be a big addition.
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(2018-02-26, 01:19 PM)shadylane Wrote: Oh got hammered by left handed hitters last year, in large part to his changeup abandoning him. It had less vertical drop, and caught more of the zone. If he can rediscover the offspeed stuff, he could be a big addition.

passed physical and released  Ezequiel Carrera guess that makes room Hernandez
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Pillar
Grichuk
Granderson
Pearce

Still don't see room for Hernandez unless someone gets hurt. Solarte can play the OF too.
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don't think Pearce has ever played more than 100 games and he can play 1B. He is a LF/DH/1B platoon player.

Grichuk is about as one dimensional as they come in terms of hitting and seems just as likely to be a disaster as above avg.

Granderson is 37.

The Jays don't really have a DH worth playing everyday.

Justin Smoak is coming of a season WELL above his regular production .


Even without injury Its not hard to imagine a scenario where Hernandez gets playing time.
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I say Granderson hits 87 homers and the Jays battle for a WC spot. Grin
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I can see Hernandez get playing time eventually. I don't see him making the Opening Day roster though. With Tulo, Travis, and Morales in the fold, they basically need to commit 2 bench spots to infielders. Solarte fortunately can play OF too.


I really don't see them carrying 5 OF'ers to start the year, especially if these vet pen arms on minor league deals impress this spring.
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Depends what they see Pearce as I suppose. He has actually been a pretty terrible OF the past 3 seasons. Maybe they don't see him as a viable 4th OF.


It largely doesn't even matter in April though.
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(2018-02-28, 08:40 PM)Andrew Wrote: Depends what they see Pearce as I suppose. He has actually been a pretty terrible OF the past 3 seasons. Maybe they don't see him as a viable 4th OF.


It largely doesn't even matter in April though.

Does it matter what they think of Pearce though? Do you think they would take Solarte and Pearce as INF and put Diaz in the minors? I suppose that could happen but I don't see it happening. Solarte has 26 starts at SS, Pearce none.
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Bringing in Grichuk and Granderson sealed Teos fate...guaranteed to start the year in Buffalo.

Given his September last year, and Bautista leaving, I had assumed Teo had at least a shot at being the opening day RF.

Now he won't even be on the 25 man.

Zero chance they carry 5 OFs

If a roster spot opens up due to DL, I think it goes to Ngoepe.
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I was actually more excited about Alford then Teo. Alford has made huge strides the last 2 years.
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