Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Blue Jays acquire Julian Merryweather to complete Josh Donaldson trade
#21
(2018-10-11, 01:56 PM)RyeRocks Wrote: interesting conversation.

I think andrew has coerced me to his side

lol

That sounds rather ominous...
Reply
Thanks given by:
#22
(2018-10-11, 01:37 PM)thebest41587 Wrote: Maybe I'm undervaluing Merryweather, but I'd much rather have a 4% chance at something good than a zero percent chance which is what I was viewing Merryweather.

You have a 4% chance if you have 593 picks lol.

With one pick the chances of getting something good are basically zero.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#23
Yeah I definitely see Merryweather having more of a 4% chance at providing major league innings for the Jays. Even if he fails as a starter, he could very well succeed out of pen with that velocity.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#24
(2018-10-11, 04:16 PM)Andrew Wrote:
(2018-10-11, 01:37 PM)thebest41587 Wrote: Maybe I'm undervaluing Merryweather, but I'd much rather have a 4% chance at something good than a zero percent chance which is what I was viewing Merryweather.

You have a 4% chance if you have 593 picks lol.

With one pick the chances of getting something good are basically zero.

No. Not buying that for a nanosecond. I'll take my chances with the pick still. It's a longshot but better than no shot.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#25
(2018-10-11, 05:36 PM)shadylane Wrote: Yeah I definitely see Merryweather having more of a 4% chance at providing major league innings for the Jays. Even if he fails as a starter, he could very well succeed out of pen with that velocity.

It's not 4% providing major league innings lol. It's 4% he'll provide 20 bWAR.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#26
Yeah my mistake. I got a bit lost in this quote train of stats heh.

I think you're being unreasonably down on Merryweather though. Saying he has "no shot" is simply not in line with what all the scouts, Jays, Indians and general prospect coverage has said about him. Not sure why you're so quick to write him off.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#27
(2018-10-11, 09:03 PM)thebest41587 Wrote:
(2018-10-11, 04:16 PM)Andrew Wrote:
(2018-10-11, 01:37 PM)thebest41587 Wrote: Maybe I'm undervaluing Merryweather, but I'd much rather have a 4% chance at something good than a zero percent chance which is what I was viewing Merryweather.

You have a 4% chance if you have 593 picks lol.

With one pick the chances of getting something good are basically zero.

No. Not buying that for a nanosecond. I'll take my chances with the pick still. It's a longshot but better than no shot.

There is nothing to buy its just reality. Since 1965 there have been 22 players out of nearly 600 to eclipse 20 bWAR (which is only a league avg player at best). That is 1 every ~27 picks. Yeah, If you get 593 picks over 40 years you have a 4% chance. If you have one pick in one draft though the the odds are are nil.

And Merryweather is not "no shot". He will probably play in the Majors in 2019.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#28
The best player picked in the 70-80 range since 2010 is Derek Deitrich at 4.8 bWAR in 608 games. and that is really only because the Marlins are cheap and terrible. He has been a replacement level player for over half of those games. Only like half a dozen even have a positive bWAR (all below 4.8 obviously)
Reply
Thanks given by:
#29
I think for most of us, we come from NHL backgrounds. Where drafts picks, even in the +100 range can be incredibly helpful. Where in MLB it is quite a bit more difficult to find a diamond in the rough. And even if you do find one, the chances of them being more than a replacement level player, are pretty slim.

Like I’ve said before, I don’t care about the return, this team needed a change and more specifically a youth movement. We should’ve traded players at their peak. We were the oldest team in baseball 2 years ago, we aren’t anymore so that’s at least 1 step forward. Let’s hope it doesn’t take another 20 year drought to get back into it. ;0
O' for a good life, we just might have to weaken
Reply
Thanks given by:
#30
Ok let me rephrase, I don't think he has a shot at 20bWAR. He turns 27 on Sunday and has had no success above AA, coming off a major injury. It's not like he pitched in the PCL either that inflated his numbers, his nearly 7 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 16 AAA starts were all in the IL.


I do like some of his other numbers, he doesn't walk a ton, he strikes out nearly one an inning. Looks like the long ball really hurt him.

I'm not writing him off, like I said I hadn't seen anything about him like what Andrew mentioned earlier, so if they are pretty high on him, then he'll be interesting to watch in 2019. I imagine even if he does recover well, he'll be on an innings limit for 2019. He's never thrown more than 135 innings by the looks of it.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#31
(2018-10-12, 09:12 AM)thebest41587 Wrote: Ok let me rephrase, I don't think he has a shot at 20bWAR. He turns 27 on Sunday and has had no success above AA, coming off a major injury. It's not like he pitched in the PCL either that inflated his numbers, his nearly 7 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 16 AAA starts were all in the IL.

I don't think he has a shot at 20 bWAR either. But that wasnt really the point. The point was that a guy this close to MLB (and who was actually pretty good in the minors despite you guys repeatedly and completely ignoring everything before 2017) is almost certainly a better option than a compensation pick.

If he even accumulates 1 bWAR he is better than ~80% of compensation picks.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#32
(2018-10-12, 09:10 AM)Chip Wrote: I think for most of us, we come from NHL backgrounds. Where drafts picks, even in the +100 range can be incredibly helpful. 

Yeah, thats because the NHL has a true worldwide draft. The thing to remember about MLB is that its literally just the USA and Canada (so basically the US lol). A huge chunk of current MLB players, something like 25% IIRC, were not drafted because they are not even eligible, they were signed as international free agents. Imagine who is getting picked in the 3rd round of an NHL draft where you cant pick anyone outisde of North America, lol.

If MLB ever does move to a worldwide draft, which seems more and more inevitable which each passing IFA scandal, then suddenly a 3rd or 4th round pick is going to be ALOT more valuable. Just looking at this yeah, Ohtani, Adujar, Torres, Soto and Acuna, AKA: the likely Rookie of the year winner, were all not draft eligible.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#33
(2018-10-12, 12:04 PM)Andrew Wrote:
(2018-10-12, 09:10 AM)Chip Wrote: I think for most of us, we come from NHL backgrounds. Where drafts picks, even in the +100 range can be incredibly helpful. 

Yeah, thats because the NHL has a true worldwide draft. The thing to remember about MLB is that its literally just the USA and Canada (so basically the US lol). A huge chunk of current MLB players, something like 25% IIRC, were not drafted because they are not even eligible, they were signed as international free agents. Imagine who is getting picked in the 3rd round of an NHL draft where you cant pick anyone outisde of North America, lol.

If MLB ever does move to a worldwide draft, which seems more and more inevitable which each passing IFA scandal, then suddenly a 3rd or 4th round pick is going to be ALOT more valuable. Just looking at this yeah, Ohtani, Adujar, Torres, Soto and Acuna, AKA: the likely Rookie of the year winner, were all not draft eligible.

To me another factor is that the MLB draft is just much, much larger. 40 rounds and over 1,200 players selected.

The NHL has 7 rounds with around 210-220 picks.

That and the nature of baseball means even your #1 picks often don't have anywhere near the level of success expected of them, unlike the NHL.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#34
Yeah the jump from college player to MLB player is pretty massive compared to other sports. MLB is really the only sport where a draft pick, at least a high one, is not expected to make an immediate impact. Its pretty rare for them to even make it to the majors in under 3 years. Dont get me wrong, all sports are hard at even the high amateur level. But the difference between College baseball and MLB is just massively, unbelievably huge. I mean, the season is over 5x longer for starters lol.

And that is just college. Alot of kids are drafted out of high school. Which is why scouting is so damn hard. How do you project an 18 year old who played like 30 games total and all of them against other 16-18 year olds. Its frankly amazing they get it right as often as they do lol.



I played pretty high level hockey and even played against some current NHLers (assuming they havent retired, god when did i get so old lol). And while I'm under no illusion i could ever compete in the NHL i never felt ridiculously out of place even against the best of the best. If you put 18 year old me out for 1 shift in the NHL i would not be good by any means but I would not embarrass myself.

I was an even better baseball player then I was hockey player and I'm dead certain that even an AA pitcher would completely embarrass me lol.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#35
(2018-10-12, 01:07 PM)Andrew Wrote: Yeah the jump from college player to MLB player is pretty massive compared to other sports. MLB is really the only sport where a draft pick, at least a high one, is not expected to make an immediate impact. Its pretty rare for them to even make it to the majors in under 3 years. Dont get me wrong, all sports are hard at even the high amateur level. But the difference between College baseball and MLB is just massively, unbelievably huge. I mean, the season is over 5x longer for starters lol.

And that is just college. Alot of kids are drafted out of high school. Which is why scouting is so damn hard. How do you project an 18 year old who played like 30 games total and all of them against other 16-18 year olds. Its frankly amazing they get it right as often as they do lol.



I played pretty high level hockey and even played against some current NHLers (assuming they havent retired, god when did i get so old lol). And while I'm under no illusion i could ever compete in the NHL i never felt ridiculously out of place even against the best of the best. If you put 18 year old me out for 1 shift in the NHL i would not be good by any means but I would not embarrass myself.

I was an even better baseball player then I was hockey player and I'm dead certain that even an AA pitcher would completely embarrass me lol.

Yeah I would agree with that for sure. I actually scored a hat trick against a goalie that ended up in the NHL as a backup for several years, and covered a guy centre vs centre in a local rivalry a few times that carved out a 400+ game career in the NHL as well. And those are just guys local enough I found out about. No idea who made it from teams I faced in tourneys, etc. 

As for baseball, I played up 1 or 2 age groups all the time, but unless we were playing a weaker team I would usually struggle. I just happened to live in an area that didn't have much ball for my age group and I eventually moved to soccer. But playing up an age group in hockey, I never felt like I couldn't compete. In baseball, I felt like I had to play good defensively to have a chance at making a difference, cause I knew my bat wasn't. And some games I did, I had a really good arm at one time, but for the most part I felt like I was above my head for sure. Hockey not even for a second did I feel that. 

I was a better hockey player than baseball player, but I would definitely say baseball is tougher than hockey.
Reply
Thanks given by:
#36
When I was 17 or so I was approached about a potential scholarship to an NAIA university in North Dakota (don't actually remember which one, every small town seems to have a university in America haha). 

It didnt ever amount to anything and I probably wouldnt have gone even if it did, but a couple guys I knew did go play NAIA and even that level was so much better. Guys who just raked up here were .200 hitters down there.
Reply
Thanks given by:


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)