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Discussing Investments
(2017-02-07, 08:51 AM)Nanuuk Wrote: I am not smart enough to market time so I tend to hold stock long term. I'm just becoming aware of the effect of interest rates on certain stocks, e.g. utilities, but tend to hold onto them as well during a down cycle as they pay dividends and I re-invest them to acquire more shares. At some point my strategy may change to take the dividends in cash to spend in retirement. Then I would be inclined to sell cyclical to capture any capital gains before they fall dramatically. Trouble is my crystal ball doesn't work that well!

Trust me, I definitely won't claim to think that I'm smart enough to time the market either.  

But when I try to look at the economics behind some of the major markets there are a few things that start to paint a darker picture (increased private, corporate, and public debt, consistent requirement of QE, negative interest rates, bailout / bail-in procedures being set into developed countries, etc.).  I could be wrong, but my gut is telling me it's time to start diversifying into ventures that leave me somewhat better protected if a market correction is coming within the next 18 months.

It's probably a more sound portfolio plan anyway (rather than be 'all-in' on North American stocks), so maybe it was just correcting a situation that could be deemed too risk tolerant.
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I will sometimes wait for a dip, but I am unable to time the market. I heve never met anyone who can, and Warren Buffet says he can't time it either.

Lots of people selling 'Get Rich Quick and Easy' courses will tell you a different story. Emphasis on the word Story
Phill 2:10-11 
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February is over, and the market is still surging.  The Dow is over 21,000 and up 20% since November.

Some updates on the stocks we've been discussing (stats are since the beginning of the year).

TSX - Up 1.6%
DOW - Up 6.3%
Enbridge (CDN) - Down 2.2%
Suncor (CDN) - Down 5.6%
CP - Up 3.04%
Home Depot - Up 10.34%
Amazon - Up 13.21%
Apple - Up 19.98% (wow!)
TD - Up 4.17%
BNS - Up 5.24%
Gold (vs CDN) - Up 5.91%
Bitcoin (vs CDN) - Up 27.4% (wow!)

With the rapid growth in the market, anyone else think they're seeing a bubble?
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(2016-12-30, 12:58 PM)BlueMountain Wrote: Real estate for me.

Almost five years ago I posted about buying up real estate in Hamilton.

Turns out, ( but I'm not sure there was any doubt) it was a very good idea.

I like tangible.

Things I can pee on.



Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

You couldn't be more right about Hamilton.
I live there and the market is insane now.
My only mistake is I didn't buy more houses.
I had some rental properties but sold them off because of the headache,
I'm wishing I held onto them now.

But my own residence has doubled in value in 8 years.
Tears streaming down my cheeks, just take me to Lansdowne Street...
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Do you see that up-trend continuing for the next several years, or is there a chance the government implements measures (similar to Vancouver) to curb the rise in prices?
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It's been a while since this was updated, so I thought I would do a quick update for anyone interested.

Some updates on the stocks we were discussing in the thread (stats are since the beginning of the year).

TSX - Up 4.24%
DOW - Up 18.7%
Enbridge (CDN) - Down 22.1% (ouch!)
Suncor (CDN) - Up 2.55%%
CP - Up 12.65%
Home Depot - Up 24.93%
Amazon - Up 51.66% (wow!)
Apple - Up 47.73% (wow!)
TD - Up 10.57%
BNS - Up 12.93%
Gold (vs CDN) - Up 5.7%
Bitcoin (vs CDN) - Up 741% (wow!)

Overall I'm absolutely thrilled with my investment decisions this year.  It's the first year where my stocks have made me significantly more than my salary did (primarily due to Apple and Bitcoin).  I think I've accelerated my retirement forecast by almost 2 years!

Going into next year, I think I'm going to sell while I'm way up on Bitcoin, and rediversify into Enbridge, Suncor, Gold, and USD as I still think we will see a correction sooner than later.  There's also been a recent surge in cannabis stocks in the last year (which I haven't owned) but they've dipped in the last few days so they might go on my radar.

Also wanted to say a big thanks to Highstyx for the heads up on HD and CP, which are now staples for my long term funds.

Anyone have any thoughts on the current market?
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(2017-11-17, 08:26 AM)art_vandelay Wrote: It's been a while since this was updated, so I thought I would do a quick update for anyone interested.

Some updates on the stocks we were discussing in the thread (stats are since the beginning of the year).

TSX - Up 4.24%
DOW - Up 18.7%
Enbridge (CDN) - Down 22.1% (ouch!)
Suncor (CDN) - Up 2.55%%
CP - Up 12.65%
Home Depot - Up 24.93%
Amazon - Up 51.66% (wow!)
Apple - Up 47.73% (wow!)
TD - Up 10.57%
BNS - Up 12.93%
Gold (vs CDN) - Up 5.7%
Bitcoin (vs CDN) - Up 741% (wow!)

Overall I'm absolutely thrilled with my investment decisions this year.  It's the first year where my stocks have made me significantly more than my salary did (primarily due to Apple and Bitcoin).  I think I've accelerated my retirement forecast by almost 2 years!

Going into next year, I think I'm going to sell while I'm way up on Bitcoin, and rediversify into Enbridge, Suncor, Gold, and USD as I still think we will see a correction sooner than later.  There's also been a recent surge in cannabis stocks in the last year (which I haven't owned) but they've dipped in the last few days so they might go on my radar.

Also wanted to say a big thanks to Highstyx for the heads up on HD and CP, which are now staples for my long term funds.

Anyone have any thoughts on the current market?


too bad you didnt already invest in medical marijuana stocks.

In June the industry bottomed after a bit of a push earlier in April.
Canopy bottomed out at 6.82. It peaked at 20.38 a few days ago and sitting at $18.50ish today.
Aphria was $.70 in June, up to $8.80
Aurora was $2.03 in June (on the TSXV), moved to the main TSX in July and is now trading at 5.63 (hit a high of $6.50 a few days ago)
Hydropothecary bottomed out at about $1.20 and is up to $2.60
MedReleaf from $7.40 to $16.30
thats 100% return in 6 months. i wish i had more invested, right now its just TFSA money, but my holding are up over 75% since i began in April/May.

all of these are near 52 week highs.

although tough time to buy many of these at the moment
I have a friend that got in on Canopy when it was at $4 a share in 2016, and he invested heavily, hes probably up $250K.

im sure this is a bubble, the question now is at what point to i get out?
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I've made a few trades this year in both my registered (TFSA) and non-registered investment accounts.

In my non-registered, SU (Suncor) and RY (Royal Bank) are my larger holdings followed by PPL (Pembina Pipelines), GWO (Great West Life) and SJR.B (Shaw Communications). The latter two are recent buys. All pay decent dividends and apart from SU, seem to trade in a narrow range.

In my TFSA, I've taken some lumps. I again hold some SU, followed by PEY (Peyto Exploration), FTS (Fortis), RY, and CPX (Capital Power). The last two are very small investments and left over DRIP's after I sold larger amounts. In the last couple of days, I purchased some Series D mutual funds from RBC, RBF1020 and 1030. It is my first foray in buying my own mutual funds. Series D have lower MER's and Management Fee's than your typical mutual fund that you might buy at RRSP time from an advisor. They compete with ETF's. The RBF1020 is Canadian Equities that has consistently best the group average for this type of fund. The RBF1030 is U.S. Equities that holds Apple, Amazaon, Facebook, etc. Both investments are small value (I'm dipping my toe in the water), but I plan to add to it over time.

Anyway to answer your question Art, I think we're do for a correction which is why I have more than 60% of my assets in cash. A savings account actually. That drives the bank tellers into a frenzy trying to arrange a meeting with their wealth management folks. Well! You just gotta invest! Nope.
Good Judgement comes from Experience which comes from Bad Judgement - Harry Neale
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(2017-11-17, 12:44 PM)PaliSENS Wrote:
(2017-11-17, 08:26 AM)art_vandelay Wrote: It's been a while since this was updated, so I thought I would do a quick update for anyone interested.

Some updates on the stocks we were discussing in the thread (stats are since the beginning of the year).

TSX - Up 4.24%
DOW - Up 18.7%
Enbridge (CDN) - Down 22.1% (ouch!)
Suncor (CDN) - Up 2.55%%
CP - Up 12.65%
Home Depot - Up 24.93%
Amazon - Up 51.66% (wow!)
Apple - Up 47.73% (wow!)
TD - Up 10.57%
BNS - Up 12.93%
Gold (vs CDN) - Up 5.7%
Bitcoin (vs CDN) - Up 741% (wow!)

Overall I'm absolutely thrilled with my investment decisions this year.  It's the first year where my stocks have made me significantly more than my salary did (primarily due to Apple and Bitcoin).  I think I've accelerated my retirement forecast by almost 2 years!

Going into next year, I think I'm going to sell while I'm way up on Bitcoin, and rediversify into Enbridge, Suncor, Gold, and USD as I still think we will see a correction sooner than later.  There's also been a recent surge in cannabis stocks in the last year (which I haven't owned) but they've dipped in the last few days so they might go on my radar.

Also wanted to say a big thanks to Highstyx for the heads up on HD and CP, which are now staples for my long term funds.

Anyone have any thoughts on the current market?


too bad you didnt already invest in medical marijuana stocks.

In June the industry bottomed after a bit of a push earlier in April.
Canopy bottomed out at 6.82. It peaked at 20.38 a few days ago and sitting at $18.50ish today.
Aphria was $.70 in June, up to $8.80
Aurora was $2.03 in June (on the TSXV), moved to the main TSX in July and is now trading at 5.63 (hit a high of $6.50 a few days ago)
Hydropothecary bottomed out at about $1.20 and is up to $2.60
MedReleaf from $7.40 to $16.30
thats 100% return in 6 months. i wish i had more invested, right now its just TFSA money, but my holding are up over 75% since i began in April/May.

all of these are near 52 week highs.

although tough time to buy many of these at the moment
I have a friend that got in on Canopy when it was at $4 a share in 2016, and he invested heavily, hes probably up $250K.

im sure this is a bubble, the question now is at what point to i get out?

Great to hear everyone doing well in the market.  I know I've missed a lot of the cannabis opportunity, but we'll see if there's a long term play out there.  I've been watching Canopy and Aurora myself.

With regards to the bubble, the way I've been looking at it is to slowly pull out winnings and diversify into safer opportunities (gold, USD, etc.).  I used Bitcoin to do this as well, but it's gone up so much that I'm cashing out and will redistribute again.

My general rule is once I believe we're in bubble territory (for me it was when the Dow hit 20,000), I take out a portion of my portfolio that's in stocks at every additional 1,000 gain in the market.
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(2017-11-17, 01:42 PM)Nanuuk Wrote: I've made a few trades this year in both my registered (TFSA) and non-registered investment accounts.

In my non-registered, SU (Suncor) and RY (Royal Bank) are my larger holdings followed by PPL (Pembina Pipelines), GWO (Great West Life) and SJR.B (Shaw Communications). The latter two are recent buys. All pay decent dividends and apart from SU, seem to trade in a narrow range.

In my TFSA, I've taken some lumps. I again hold some SU, followed by PEY (Peyto Exploration), FTS (Fortis), RY, and CPX (Capital Power). The last two are very small investments and left over DRIP's after I sold larger amounts. In the last couple of days, I purchased some Series D mutual funds from RBC, RBF1020 and 1030. It is my first foray in buying my own mutual funds. Series D have lower MER's and Management Fee's than your typical mutual fund that you might buy at RRSP time from an advisor. They compete with ETF's. The RBF1020 is Canadian Equities that has consistently best the group average for this type of fund. The RBF1030 is U.S. Equities that holds Apple, Amazaon, Facebook, etc. Both investments are small value (I'm dipping my toe in the water), but I plan to add to it over time.

Anyway to answer your question Art, I think we're do for a correction which is why I have more than 60% of my assets in cash. A savings account actually. That drives the bank tellers into a frenzy trying to arrange a meeting with their wealth management folks. Well! You just gotta invest! Nope.

I know the feeling - I'm over 1/3 in cash now (in a savings account as well).  I worry about pulling funds out too early and missing more of the ride, but I guess I'd rather be a year too early than a year too late.

Are you managing the mutual funds yourself, or do you have to go through an advisor?  I've always been cautious with how much I invest through mutual funds because of the MER fees.  I find most of the mutual fund managers out there struggle to meet the returns of the Dow and TSX year over year.
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(2017-11-17, 03:49 PM)art_vandelay Wrote: Great to hear everyone doing well in the market.  I know I've missed a lot of the cannabis opportunity, but we'll see if there's a long term play out there.  I've been watching Canopy and Aurora myself.

With regards to the bubble, the way I've been looking at it is to slowly pull out winnings and diversify into safer opportunities (gold, USD, etc.).  I used Bitcoin to do this as well, but it's gone up so much that I'm cashing out and will redistribute again.

My general rule is once I believe we're in bubble territory (for me it was when the Dow hit 20,000), I take out a portion of my portfolio that's in stocks at every additional 1,000 gain in the market.


That's what I'm planning to do, although i think there is still room for the bubble to grow leading up to legalization, and will likely see a pop just after that.

Its hard to believe that a company with $20mil in revenue can have a $2B+ market cap.

I don't have that much in and I dont have much fear in losing as i got in early enough, so I will probably wait until June, cash out my initial investment +50% of profits and leave the rest in there to see what happens.
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(2017-11-17, 04:02 PM)art_vandelay Wrote: Are you managing the mutual funds yourself, or do you have to go through an advisor?  I've always been cautious with how much I invest through mutual funds because of the MER fees.  I find most of the mutual fund managers out there struggle to meet the returns of the Dow and TSX year over year.

Yes. I have an RBC Direct Investing account. RBC (and other banks I'm sure) offer tools to screen mutual funds. The Series D funds have low MER's and Management Fees so I figured what the hey. A buddy ( a very well off investor) suggested I look at Mawer Funds. I looked at them and want to buy, but no can do through my account. So that got me researching a number of funds before I settled on these RBC funds. I may add a balanced fund at some point, but for now I'll see how they track.

I forgot to mention I was into the AW.UN Income Trust. I bought at $25 and sold at $36. I almost regret that as my goal was monthly income. I sold waiting for them to drop. Hasn't happened so now no monthly income from A&W!
Good Judgement comes from Experience which comes from Bad Judgement - Harry Neale
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Not that I'm pushing anything, but the RBC1020 fund has had the same manager for 10 years and a life to date return of 8.12%. It has an MER of 1.04% and management feed of 0.85% so you can compare to other funds. Are there better funds out there? Most assuredly. But I took comfort from the ten year performance as we saw ups and downs since 2007. I guess I'll learn the hard way if this goes south!
Good Judgement comes from Experience which comes from Bad Judgement - Harry Neale
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