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Fun read on why we'll probably re-sign Duchene and Stone
#1
The Senators will easily hit the 2019-20 cap floor
14 comments
The cap floor isn’t all that hard to hit
By Ross A@Sheer_Rossyness Dec 18, 2018, 7:00am EST

Over the last few weeks, I’ve seen a lot of variations on a single argument as to why the Senators will absolutely, positively sign Mark Stone and Matt Duchene:

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[/url] SensInsider @SensInsider


Waivers, one ways, two ways, it doesn’t matter. I am more interested how the #Sens get to the cap floor next season when Duchene, Stone, and possibly Dzingel exit left.

25
2:07 PM - Dec 16, 2018
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It’s a compelling argument. After all, teams have to hit the cap floor, and after shipping out [url=https://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/244210/erik-karlsson]Erik Karlsson, the Sens may have a harder time doing it. Stone and Duchene will both be commanding big UFA money, and that seems an easy way to do it. Lots of people are worried the Sens will have to let them both go because they can’t afford them, but this argument points out the opposite side: the Sens can’t afford to not have them. However, I hate to tell you this, but hitting the cap floor isn’t all that hard. I figured this out a couple years ago when I tried to assemble a Vegas Golden Knights roster and ended up changing my picks when I found I was ~$10M over the cap floor. So let’s look at this from Ottawa’s perspective.

This year, the salary floor was $58.8M. Last year, it was $55.4M. Let’s assume next year it’s somewhere around $62M, because this seems like a high estimate. Here is the Sens’ current breakdown, thanks to Cap Friendly:
[Image: sens_cap_space.jpg]  [Image: sens_cap_space_2.jpg]
That puts the Sens at $47.1M for next year when you add in Mike Condon’s currently buried salary. The problem is, this setup leaves the Sens with 7 NHL forwards, 6 NHL defencemen, and 2 NHL goalies if Condon is still an NHL goalie. That’s a pretty sparse group. Now let’s imagine the Sens re-sign RFAs Colin White and Nick Paul, and let Cody Ceci walk or trade him or something for argument’s sake. Let’s say Paul comes in at $800k and White comes in at $2.5M (aka a little less than Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s second contract). That puts us at $50.4M for 8 forwards, 6 d-men, and 2 goalies. That’s not enough for an NHL season. Even if you assume Formenton, Brown, Balcers, and Chlapik all get added to the roster, each for less than $1M, that’s still the bare minimum roster coming in at $53.5M. That means Dorion needs to add $8.5M to his roster in total for our high estimate of the salary floor, but also has no room for injuries at all during the season.

First off, Christian Wolanin will probably be in the fold for next year. Depending on how this year goes, I imagine he’ll be something like $1.5M in the NHL. If the Sens retain Cody Ceci at $5M, then that leaves 2 forwards with only $2M left necessary to spend. If the Sens let Ceci walk, then that means $7M for likely 2 forwards. Bring back Ryan Dzingel at $3.5M, sign Carl Hagelin at $3M... there are a lot of options here for the team to pick up a couple UFA wingers and reach the floor. Of course, the team could also bring back one of Stone or Duchene at their expected salaries (~$9M and $8M respectively), and then it wouldn’t even be a concern.

The other option the Sens have is Eugene’s presumed favourite: bringing in an injured player. It’s the Dion Phaneuf for Marian Gaborik strategy — the Kings saved money, but the Sens save money versus what they would have paid, and as long as Gaborik keeps hanging out on injured reserve, the Sens don’t even have to pay his salary. They could try trading for someone else whose salary will be covered by insurance, such as David Clarkson ($5.25M cap hit next season) or Marian Hossa ($5.275M cap hit until 2020-2021). That would be an easy way to hit the floor and still save money.

Hitting the floor isn’t hard in today’s NHL. If the Sens let every UFA and Ceci walk, they’ll need to spend about $8.5M on three or four skaters. That doesn’t strike me as very hard, and definitely doesn’t depend on the Sens re-signing both Stone and Duchene. Not saying the Sens will let them both walk, just that it their contracts won’t be because of hitting the floor. If they do both re-sign, it’ll likely be because the Sens realize they can’t afford to lose their two best players within a year of having lost their best player.
https://www.silversevensens.com/2018/12/...-cap-floor
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Unless Melnyk goes and acquires  Hossa and Clarkson to meet the cap floor, I have a strong feeling Duchene and Stone might stay. Team needs to spend to be at the floor lol
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#2
I forgot about that, so yes, it is a good thing there's a cap floor and that it's going up (i think). Which means Cheap Gene will have to put his money where his mouth is and at least ice a decent team next season. The only question is why aren't they signed yet? It should be a no-brainer to sign both a.s.a.p yet somehow they're sitting on it like they have some other options available?
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#3
many agents don't fully negotiate during the season, they will talk of course.
I'm sure the sens already have a feeling of what's to come, so do the players.

EK hasn't signed either
When sound found rhythm the dimensions of joy exploded.
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#4
On an off topic note, I'm wondering what Karlsson will be signing for given he hasn't been playing at an elite level this season. Wondering if it'll be less or more than whatever Dorion offered (still would like to know number).

I just hope Dorion and Melnyk offer market value and don't lowball Stone or Duchene
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#5
(2018-12-20, 08:03 PM)leftcurve Wrote: many agents don't fully negotiate during the season, they will talk of course.
I'm sure the sens already have a feeling of what's to come, so do the players.

EK hasn't signed either

EK is not eligible for an 8 year contract until sometime in January. Some weird rule about signing after a trade during the last year of a contract.
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#6
Stone will stay and get 7 or 8 years at 9M per or so. Duchene will be traded in the new year for a 3rd line forward, a number 6 d-man and of course the team will throw in a conditional 2nd round pick. Dorion will be thrilled with that.
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#7
Heisenberg Wrote:
leftcurve Wrote:many agents don't fully negotiate during the season, they will talk of course.
I'm sure the sens already have a feeling of what's to come, so do the players.

EK hasn't signed either

EK is not eligible for an 8 year contract until sometime in January. Some weird rule about signing after a trade during the last year of a contract.

 
eligible to sign an 8 year deal with SJ after the trade deadline.
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#8
The one faulty piece of logic is that no matter how much we want to let Ceci walk or trade him, he will probably get some ridiculous $5-6mil contract because Dorion still loves him.
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#9
(2018-12-21, 10:14 AM)PaliSENS Wrote:
Heisenberg Wrote:
leftcurve Wrote:many agents don't fully negotiate during the season, they will talk of course.
I'm sure the sens already have a feeling of what's to come, so do the players.

EK hasn't signed either

EK is not eligible for an 8 year contract until sometime in January. Some weird rule about signing after a trade during the last year of a contract.

 
eligible to sign an 8 year deal with SJ after the trade deadline.

Thanks. Knew it was something like that. That is likely the only reason he is still unsigned. I suspect SJ gets it done. Then we gotta cheer hard for them to make the SCF so we will then have their 2020 and 2021 first rounders. 

Then when they suddenly transform into a lottery team next season, we will have a couple high first rounders in addition to our own!  Muahahahaha. 

Ok maybe that last line is a bit of wishful thinking. We all know Dorion is gonna trade our own high first rounders lol.
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#10
(2018-12-21, 08:14 AM)Boxer Wrote: Stone will stay and get 7 or 8 years at 9M per or so. Duchene will be traded in the new year for a 3rd line forward, a number 6 d-man and of course the team will throw in a conditional 2nd round pick. Dorion will be thrilled with that.

This is what I expect to happen as well unfortunately. Stone may not sign either.
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#11
(2018-12-21, 12:13 PM)Heisenberg Wrote:
(2018-12-21, 08:14 AM)Boxer Wrote: Stone will stay and get 7 or 8 years at 9M per or so. Duchene will be traded in the new year for a 3rd line forward, a number 6 d-man and of course the team will throw in a conditional 2nd round pick. Dorion will be thrilled with that.

This is what I expect to happen as well unfortunately. Stone may not sign either.

Lol you guys suck, i'm trying to not think about this (somewhat realistic possibility).
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#12
Ideally Duchene and Stone both re-sign at $8.5 for 8 years, but both are producing at top line levels. Definitely can see each of them asking for $9.5 million. Just hope neither asks for anything ridiculous like $10-11 million. Also hope the organization doesn't ghost them like they did EK. Chabot is good, but we can't pin all our hopes on him
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#13
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sena...act-offer/

Kypreos said that Dorion has offered an 8 year deal at $8 million per year. That's a fair deal imo. $2 million raise for a player who's having his best offensive season and can play a good 200ft game. Anymore would be too much imo and we'd better off trading him. The deal will take him to 36. Maybe front load the deal so he gets a $9-10 million the first couple years of it (probably won't happen cuz El cheapo). 

C'mon Duchene, sign it and be a part of a quick rebuild!
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#14
As much as Duchene has been a force this season, at 29 he’s the kind of player that has buyer beware written all over him. He hasn’t exactly torn the league up prior to arriving here. If it goes over $9M, probably best to see what you can get back in a trade, as much as it would set the team back.
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#15
Hard to tell what will happen down the road but are we a better team with Duchene than without? Most certainly we are so you suck it up, pay him what he's worth and hope for the best.
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#16
That’s the same kind of strategy that handcuffs you with Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith type contracts. You know, the untradeable type...long term trends must be considered.
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#17
If you don't sign your best players, you remain a bottom feeding team forever. I remember years ago a player who was 28-30 hitting free agency was considered golden and teams like NYR , TOR , Det, would spend out the ass to get them signed, so it's a risk but not every elite player ends up down the Bobby Ryan path.
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#18
How many of those actually worked out for those teams though? Generally even when they ended up being decent players for those teams, they under produced relative to their salaries. That type of risk is not a luxury a budget team like Ottawa can afford.
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#19
(2019-01-20, 09:21 PM)Ryu65 Wrote: If you don't sign your best players, you remain a bottom feeding team forever. I remember years ago a player who was 28-30 hitting free agency was considered golden and teams like NYR , TOR , Det, would spend out the ass to get them signed, so it's a risk but not every elite player ends up down the Bobby Ryan path.

This is the only season where Duchene has ever produced like an elite offensive centre. Most of it could be due to this being a contract year as well. I'm fine to let Pageau and White be our top line centres and tank next year for a good pick rather than get stuck signing Duchene to a contract that'll hurt us long term. I'm not opposed to him staying but $8million is the most I'm confortable paying him (which could still be a bad contract near the end imo)
If you need a sign to stay alive tonight, this is it!
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#20
A bad contract is considered bad based on it's length not so much how much. 8 or 9 mill a year let's say for 4 years is easy to swallow if the player goes downhill whereas 8 or 9 for seven or eight years is where it gets tough. The playe though knows this and they're gonna want term, so you either take the risk and sign said player or you decide you don't want to sign an over 25 player to a long term contract and move him for future assets and hope for the best.

If we don't re-sign Stone and Duchene, it's going to make it really hard to be competitive again before 5 years as we don't really have enough players right now that can take us to the next level right away.
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