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Jays prospects
Yeah I hope that’s not the case but it’s gotten pretty ridiculous. I’ve read that he’ll win batting titles, that he could lead the league in home runs, that he’ll play a passable third base, and that he should have elite plate discipline. Do people actually realize what this is? It's like 2013 Miguel Cabrera as a starting point.

44 HR
.348/.442/.636 slash line
13.8% BB%
14.4% K%
193 wRC+
8.6 fWAR

Except Miggy’s WAR that year was negatively affected by awful defense at 3B and awful base running (both to be expected from a 30 year old with his body type). If Vlad hits offensive expectations in his early 20s when his body is still somewhat athletic, then it's probably a 9-10 win season.

And this would be with 80 grade power. If we assume this fantasy land 90 power can actually be a thing, tack on another 50 points to the SLG which is another full win above replacement. So now we’re talking about some of the best seasons of all time. Cobb, Mantle, Ruth, and Williams like you said.

I feel like everyone’s speaking in 90th percentile terms when it comes to Vlad. I mean, I guess they do when it comes to most special prospects. But I don’t think publications are doing a very good job of separating “ceiling” from “reasonable expectations” in Vlad’s case. If he averages 35 HR with a .300 BA while playing 3B for a few seasons, that’s going to fall short of some people’s expectations lol. A mere 6 win player, what a bum!
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I think you hit the nail on the head. People are foaming at the mouth over Vlad's cieling while not really acknowledging that he probably is never going to get there (very very few players do). Reminds me a bit of Harper and Strasburg.

 They were hyped to the moon ("The LeBron James of baseball" cover lol) and both crushed at the MiLB level. while both are really good players they are not even the best on their team and their greatness is pretty inconsistent.
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Yeah Harper's a great example for position player prospects. His 2015 production fulfilled the potential that evaluators saw in him. But he's only done that once (maybe twice if you count a shortened 2017) out of 6 (soon to be 7) seasons.

Reflecting on prospect hype like this really puts in perspective how insane Mike Trout's career has been. Think of the all-time prospects and what their ceilings were, and Trout is reaching that ceiling every single year. That's not supposed to happen lol.
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AA all-star game was also Wednesday night. Jays prospect who were all-stars were: Jordan Romano, T.J. Zeuch, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vladdy Jr., and Jonathan Davis.

Edit - BP announced there Top 50 mid-season prospects today as well.

#1 is Vladdy Jr., Bichette is 10th.
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BA was even higher on Bichette, ranking him at #5 on their mid-season update today.

Vladdy's been activated for the Fisher Cats' game tomorrow night. Can't imagine it's much longer before he's up to AAA.
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(2018-07-18, 02:05 PM)shadylane Wrote: BA was even higher on Bichette, ranking him at #5 on their mid-season update today.

Vladdy's been activated for the Fisher Cats' game tomorrow night. Can't imagine it's much longer before he's up to AAA.

You think so? Buffalo is 5 games out of the wild card and have 5 teams to pass.

New Hampshire is in first place with a 6 game cushion on 3rd (Top 2 make it). 

I could see him stay in New Hampshire for the playoff run, which means he's called up to the Jays later in September, which means he's called up earlier in April/May next year than he would be if he played in Buffalo and came up after the regular season was over.
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Word a few weeks ago, was that he'd be getting the call up to AAA as soon as healthy. Saw he is down in Dunedin (as is Osuna), imagine he'll go back to AA for a few games, than up to AAA.

I don't think team standings, and playoff runs will change those plans.
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Yeah I think the Jays would probably like to see how Vlad fares against AAA pitching. I feel like AAA teams have much better late inning relievers and specialists than AA teams do, and it would provide a final test before September. He really has nothing left to prove in AA imo. I could be wrong though.
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