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What's He Worth?
#1
2019 looks to be the off-season from hell for a handful of NHL GMs with talented young forwards with expiring ELCs.
The McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl deals have set the bar for guys coming out of their ELC as established stars. 
 
Pretty simple, just copy/paste and add in what you think their next contract will be. 

There are more, but I've only included the guys who are currently averaging close to, or better than a point per game. 

Mikko Rantanen:
Auston Matthews: 
Brayden Point: 
Mitch Marner: 
Patrik Laine: 
Matthew Tkachuk:
Sebastian Aho: 
Brock Boeser: 
Kyle Connor: 
Timo Meier:
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#2
Mikko Rantanen:    $10 million
Auston Matthews:  $12.6 million
Brayden Point:       $8 million
Mitch Marner:        $10.5 million
Patrik Laine:          $10 million
Matthew Tkachuk:  $7 million
Sebastian Aho:      $7 million
Brock Boeser:        $6 million
Kyle Connor:         $5.5 million
Timo Meier:          $5.5 million


Yet Dubas thinks he can keep his team together!  We're all very curious as to how the hell he's going to do that
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#3
Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.
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#4
(2018-12-13, 10:50 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.

Taxes and the Toronto Effect.
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#5
Florida has no state income tax whereas Ontario rapes you for doing well for yourself

Same reason Stamkos, Hedman & Kucherov have a lower AAV
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#6
(2018-12-13, 10:36 AM)CTS Wrote: Mikko Rantanen:    $10 million <- A touch high I think, he's behind guys like Staal, Kane, Tarasenko in Pts/gm. I'd use Panarin as my comparison, and I don't see him getting $10. MAYBE $8?
Auston Matthews:  $12.6 million <-So you think he's worth MORE than McDavid? $11.5 max (He hasn't proven to be durable, risky dumping McDavid money on him here). Great player, no doubt. And the question I guess is value to the team, rather than "worth". So I can see the Leafs paying that much for him, but is he worth it? Not when you compare to McDavid
Brayden Point:       $8 million <- Sure, in fact, I'd say this is a really good deal, progress has been steady. 
Mitch Marner:        $10.5 million <- He's not that much better than Draisaitl, maybe $9.5 
Patrik Laine:          $10 million <- I'd go with a bit less, matching Marner, he loses too many board battles, and is a below average passer. Obviously, he can shoot the puck though, better than almost anyone out there
Matthew Tkachuk:  $7 million <- Fair 
Sebastian Aho:      $7 million <- This is a tough one. He's been outstanding, but his comparable IMO are the two guys below here. The window for Aho, Boeser and Connor, I think is probably $6-7
Brock Boeser:        $6 million <- I'd say fair
Kyle Connor:         $5.5 million <- Slight bump up, I'd go $6 here. 
Timo Meier:          $5.5 million <-1/2 a point a game, having a great year, but I'd offer him $4-4.5 bridge, if he can do it again, then sure, we'll go higher. But until it's proven, I'm not looking at anything over $5


Benchmark players and their contracts.

Ehlers - 7 years $6mil/yr (Are Boeser, Connor, Aho, Meier, Tkachuk more valuable?)
Kucherov - 8 years $9.5mil/yr (Are Laine, Marner, Point worth more/the same?)
Draisaitl - 8 years $8.5mil/yr (Are Rantanen, Laine, Marner, Point worth THAT much more?)
Johansen - 8 years $8mil/yr (Same question as above)

With that said, Alex Tuch got himself a payday that everyone on this list I would think is worth more... so who knows?
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#7
(2018-12-13, 10:50 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.

Points per game is the reason Matthews is worth more. Sure he's leading the league this year, but is this his norm? Or, is his norm really a point a game player? I'd lean towards the latter. He's on a streak, but I don't see this lasting for years. 

Oh, and he did miss 1 game last year, but that's nit picking. 

I think Point at $8 is a great deal, but I suspect he'll be looking at an almost identical payday to Marner.
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#8
"Benchmark players and their contracts."

There is no such thing as a benchmark when the cap is not static. Those are starting points as comparables but other factors are involved.
"I drink to make other people interesting"
~ E. Hemmingway
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#9
I have a hard time seeing a world where Mitch Marner is worth more than Mikko Rantanen, after Rantanen outscored him 84 to 69 last year, and is leading the league this year.

For years people laughed at Leaf fans for overvaluing their players and now, according to what people believe they should be paid (Toronto media included), we apparently have 2 of the best 3 players in the league on our team, despite the fact that there are no statistics back up that assessment.

It's been a weird transition to watch. I'm literally having to tell Leaf fans and Leaf haters alike that our guys aren't as good as you think.
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#10
(2018-12-13, 11:09 AM)theDC Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 10:50 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.

Points per game is the reason Matthews is worth more. Sure he's leading the league this year, but is this his norm? Or, is his norm really a point a game player? I'd lean towards the latter. He's on a streak, but I don't see this lasting for years. 

Oh, and he did miss 1 game last year, but that's nit picking. 

I think Point at $8 is a great deal, but I suspect he'll be looking at an almost identical payday to Marner.

It can't be. 

Points per game for Rantanen over the past 2 seasons: 1.21

Points per game for Matthews over the past 2 seasons: 1.14

Matthews had a better first season in the league than Rantanen did, but does that really matter now, when the sample size for both guys in my comparison is 110+ games for Rantanen? 

A season and a half is a hell of streak.
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#11
(2018-12-13, 11:18 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 11:09 AM)theDC Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 10:50 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.

Points per game is the reason Matthews is worth more. Sure he's leading the league this year, but is this his norm? Or, is his norm really a point a game player? I'd lean towards the latter. He's on a streak, but I don't see this lasting for years. 

Oh, and he did miss 1 game last year, but that's nit picking. 

I think Point at $8 is a great deal, but I suspect he'll be looking at an almost identical payday to Marner.

It can't be. 

Points per game for Rantanen over the past 2 seasons: 1.21

Points per game for Matthews over the past 2 seasons: 1.14

Matthews had a better first season in the league than Rantanen did, but does that really matter now, when the sample size for both guys in my comparison is 110+ games for Rantanen? 

A season and a half is a hell of streak.

He was 1 pt/gm player last year, this year he's at 1.7, do you honestly think he can maintain that? he's a now a perennial 140 pt player??? I don't think so, he's on a 30 game hot streak. That's an insane increase, and if that's his new "normal" then he gets league max. I don't think it is his new normal, I think he's just above a pt a game player. Matthews has been consistent over his two seasons.

Oh, after looking a lot closer at his numbers, he's closer to $10 than I had initially given him credit for.
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#12
(2018-12-13, 11:10 AM)Limestoner Wrote: "Benchmark players and their contracts."

There is no such thing as a benchmark when the cap is not static. Those are starting points as comparables but other factors are involved.

Agreed. I'm using the term benchmark more as the types of players and their contracts. Of course it slides, and if it increases, then guys who aren't as good start making money that make Crosby look like a bum.
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#13
Matthews plays Center, Rantanen plays wing

There's another reason he's worth more.
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#14
(2018-12-13, 11:28 AM)theDC Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 11:18 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 11:09 AM)theDC Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 10:50 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: Why is Mitch Marner worth 2.5M more than Brayden Point when they play very similar styles and have identical production numbers over the last two years?

Why is Mikko Rantanen worth 2.6M less than Matthews when Rantanen had 84 points last year and is leading the league this year, and hasn't missed a game over that span?

Those are HUGE financial differences for guys who play similar roles, and have virtually equal production numbers.

Points per game is the reason Matthews is worth more. Sure he's leading the league this year, but is this his norm? Or, is his norm really a point a game player? I'd lean towards the latter. He's on a streak, but I don't see this lasting for years. 

Oh, and he did miss 1 game last year, but that's nit picking. 

I think Point at $8 is a great deal, but I suspect he'll be looking at an almost identical payday to Marner.

It can't be. 

Points per game for Rantanen over the past 2 seasons: 1.21

Points per game for Matthews over the past 2 seasons: 1.14

Matthews had a better first season in the league than Rantanen did, but does that really matter now, when the sample size for both guys in my comparison is 110+ games for Rantanen? 

A season and a half is a hell of streak.

He was 1 pt/gm player last year, this year he's at 1.7, do you honestly think he can maintain that? he's a now a perennial 140 pt player??? I don't think so, he's on a 30 game hot streak. That's an insane increase, and if that's his new "normal" then he gets league max. I don't think it is his new normal, I think he's just above a pt a game player. Matthews has been consistent over his two seasons.

Oh, after looking a lot closer at his numbers, he's closer to $10 than I had initially given him credit for.

No, I don't think Rantanen will be a 140pt player ever year...but I also don't think Matthews will score a goal a game the way he (almost) has this year. I don't think Matthews is a 140pt player either...because nobody has been for a looong time.

Projections are fun, but they will be going into negotiations armed with what they have done, and my point is the gap between the two, that would justify one guy making 2-3M more when they re-up at the same time, over the past two seasons, just isn't there.

Rantanen had 84 in 81 last year. (1.03PPG)
Matthews had 63 in 62 last year. (1.02PPG)
Matthews has 27 in 17. (1.59PPG)
Rantanen has 52 in 31. (1.68PPG)

IMO, if either of the two is capable of 140 points it's Rantanen because he appears to be more durable. 

I have the exact same opinion when it comes to Point and Marner. 

The Toronto guys get overhyped and overvalued...and I'm used to it from Leaf fans, I'm just not used to seeing it from the rest of the fans around the league.
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#15
(2018-12-13, 11:39 AM)CTS Wrote: Matthews plays Center,  Rantanen plays wing

There's another reason he's worth more.

How's that rationale work for Point vs Marner?
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#16
Mathews was drafted 1st overall and according to many on here has a 2 way game that is the best in the league. That's why I think he'll be asking for Mcdavid money. The leafs should sign him early so the rest have to at least get overpaid as well.
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#17
Would love to see sme overpayments that would screw over some teams!
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#18
(2018-12-13, 10:32 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote: 2019 looks to be the off-season from hell for a handful of NHL GMs with talented young forwards with expiring ELCs.
The McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl deals have set the bar for guys coming out of their ELC as established stars. 
 
Pretty simple, just copy/paste and add in what you think their next contract will be. 

There are more, but I've only included the guys who are currently averaging close to, or better than a point per game. 

Mikko Rantanen: 10
Auston Matthews: 12
Brayden Point: 8.5
Mitch Marner: 9.5
Patrik Laine: 10
Matthew Tkachuk: 7
Sebastian Aho: 7
Brock Boeser: 7
Kyle Connor: 6.5
Timo Meier: 7




Need to consider if these are MAX 8 year contracts, 5/6 year contracts up to UFA status OR Bridge Contracts? Each changes equations.
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#19
(2018-12-13, 11:05 AM)theDC Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 10:36 AM)CTS Wrote: Mikko Rantanen:    $10 million <- A touch high I think, he's behind guys like Staal, Kane, Tarasenko in Pts/gm. I'd use Panarin as my comparison, and I don't see him getting $10. MAYBE $8?
Auston Matthews:  $12.6 million <-So you think he's worth MORE than McDavid? $11.5 max (He hasn't proven to be durable, risky dumping McDavid money on him here). Great player, no doubt. And the question I guess is value to the team, rather than "worth". So I can see the Leafs paying that much for him, but is he worth it? Not when you compare to McDavid
Brayden Point:       $8 million <- Sure, in fact, I'd say this is a really good deal, progress has been steady. 
Mitch Marner:        $10.5 million <- He's not that much better than Draisaitl, maybe $9.5 
Patrik Laine:          $10 million <- I'd go with a bit less, matching Marner, he loses too many board battles, and is a below average passer. Obviously, he can shoot the puck though, better than almost anyone out there
Matthew Tkachuk:  $7 million <- Fair 
Sebastian Aho:      $7 million <- This is a tough one. He's been outstanding, but his comparable IMO are the two guys below here. The window for Aho, Boeser and Connor, I think is probably $6-7
Brock Boeser:        $6 million <- I'd say fair
Kyle Connor:         $5.5 million <- Slight bump up, I'd go $6 here. 
Timo Meier:          $5.5 million <-1/2 a point a game, having a great year, but I'd offer him $4-4.5 bridge, if he can do it again, then sure, we'll go higher. But until it's proven, I'm not looking at anything over $5


Benchmark players and their contracts.

Ehlers - 7 years $6mil/yr (Are Boeser, Connor, Aho, Meier, Tkachuk more valuable?)
Kucherov - 8 years $9.5mil/yr (Are Laine, Marner, Point worth more/the same?)
Draisaitl - 8 years $8.5mil/yr (Are Rantanen, Laine, Marner, Point worth THAT much more?)
Johansen - 8 years $8mil/yr (Same question as above)

With that said, Alex Tuch got himself a payday that everyone on this list I would think is worth more... so who knows?

Fair comparables, just have to factor cap increase percentage. I think the Nylander contract is a decent comparable as well
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#20
(2018-12-13, 11:40 AM)Bo Dangles Wrote:
(2018-12-13, 11:39 AM)CTS Wrote: Matthews plays Center,  Rantanen plays wing

There's another reason he's worth more.

How's that rationale work for Point vs Marner?



TB is going to be hard pressed giving Point more than Stamkos and near Kucherov $ given the Cap.

I think most of us expect the Leafs are planning to use near all their available Cap space on two players.


Players and agents (and fans) will definitely look around the League for "comparables" but each teams situation is different.
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